Analysis by freelance contributor Marcus George in Dubai
Updated
Weeks after an unprecedented nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, the oil ministry in Tehran is in overdrive.
Officials are struggling to schedule all the meetings requested by visiting companies and trade delegations. There is little doubt the Iranian oil rush has already begun.
International oil companies (IOCs) including Royal Dutch Shell, France's Total and Lukoil from Russia are just a few who have visited the Iranian capital to scout for opportunities.
Not only does the Islamic republic boast massive reserves of oil and natural gas, it is also much in need of outside expertise and investment.
This is no easy time for Iran to regain its lost market share, which has plummeted by more than half since tough sanctions were imposed at the start of 2012.
From highs of over $110 a barrel in mid-2014, global prices of crude now languish at under $50 a barrel.
But despite the challenges, oil industry sources predict the relative low-cost of production from Iranian reservoirs will make good financial sense.
"The oil market is moving in a very unpredictable direction right now but there are big opportunities. Investors are interested because of the potentials and the cost will be cheaper than elsewhere," a former National Iranian Oil Company official said.
There is little doubting the potential. Iran has the fourth-largest oil reserves in the world behind Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and Canada.
Significantly it holds the largest reserves of natural gas in the world — even eclipsing Russia, according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
In a stark turnaround, Iran now whets the appetite of many IOCs awaiting the final lifting of sanctions, when Iran completes certain nuclear obligations over coming months.
"It's an inescapable opportunity when it comes. Potentially, a very lucrative market," one executive of a European oil company said.
More than $100b in investment needed to meet demand
Unsurprisingly, the slide in crude prices has created a sizeable black hole in Iran's budget.
While the government has cut infrastructure projects and increased food and fuel prices, it is pinning hopes on the oil industry to plug the deficit and revitalise the economy.
Over the last two years, oil minister Bijan Zanganeh has succeeded in nudging up exports to around 1.2 million barrels per day.
But without sanctions relief and large scale outside investment, the country will struggle to return to pre-sanctions exports of 3 million barrels per day.
According to estimates, more than $100 billion in investment will be needed to get back to that level.
Not only does Iran need international expertise to improve productivity at its aging fields, it is intent on attracting IOCs by developing projects at new reservoirs.
Add to that the need for large maintenance and engineering contracts and its no surprise that oil executives are rubbing their hands in anticipation of the lifting of sanctions in early 2016.
"Iran is a seriously attractive proposition now. For oil companies, the rate of returns are likely to be much higher than other investment possibilities around the world," Iranian-born economist at UK-based Betamatrix Mehrdad Emadi said.
To lay the groundwork, the Iranian oil ministry has been working on a revised international oil contract regime.
Authorities say the new Iranian Petroleum Contract (IPC) is a highly competitive framework that offers partnerships of up to 30 years, with higher rewards for more risk.
It is expected to be unveiled in Tehran followed by a high-profile launch featuring senior Iranian oil officials in London in December.
The head of Iran's oil contract revision committee, Mehdi Hosseini, said much of the discussion with companies visiting Tehran revolved around the contracts.
Equally important is the list of more than 40 priority development projects to be released at the London event. They include a number of joint fields Iran shares with its neighbours, such as Qatar and Iraq.
Potential investors eye for access to untapped consumer market
While oil may be a focal point for foreign companies, it is far from the only attraction.
Manufacturing, luxury goods, the car industry, mining and construction: the list is endless.
And why? The Iranian market offers a large population — around 75 million people — a high literacy rate, rich in natural resources and boasting a vibrant entrepreneurial spirit.
Having been isolated by sanctions for years, Iran's need for imported goods and services is huge.
To make the point, a trade delegation comprising 130 delegates organised by the French business lobby group, Medef, arrived in Tehran last weekend.
It included executives from Total, France's largest oil company, and the car makers Peugeot and Renault, both of whom had major operations in Iran prior to 2011.
Earlier this week, France opened a trade office in Tehran, the first by any European country.
After the opening, one accompanying French minister said his country was seeking a "long and deep economic partnerships with Iran".
Economists say that if sanctions are lifted, Iran will benefit from around $250 billion in investment over the next six years.
As a net result, the GDP would soar and bring about a major surge in prosperity.
"If that happens, the need for consumer products will become incredibly high," said Mehrdad Emadi.
"For Iran's trading partners, it'll be a dream come true."
No comments:
Post a Comment